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GridironProjector NFL

Projected scores, margins, totals and win probability for every NFL game, graded in public.

About GridironProjector NFL

GridironProjector is Dixon App Studio's independent NFL projection model. Teams are rated from play-by-play data (expected points added and points, opponent adjusted), each season starting from last year's ratings regressed toward average. A quarterback value system adjusts for who is actually starting, and home field, travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons. Win chances come from a calibrated curve, so the model does not hand out 99% favourites. Projections are frozen before kickoff and graded afterwards on a public scorecard, and the methodology page publishes the walk-forward backtest.

Features

✓Projected score, margin, total and win probability for every NFL game
✓Opponent-adjusted team ratings with a starting-quarterback adjustment
✓Home field, travel, rest and weather in the model
✓Projections frozen before kickoff and graded on a public scorecard
✓Power rankings, season projections, schedule and team pages

Who it's for

NFL fans who want a numbers-first look at this week's games, and anyone curious how a ratings-based projection model works. Projections are estimates for analysis and entertainment, not guarantees.

Frequently asked questions

What does GridironProjector project?▾

Every NFL game: a projected score for each team, the margin, the total and each side's win probability.

Can I check how accurate it is?▾

Yes. Projections are saved before kickoff and never edited; the scorecard grades every finished game, and the methodology page shows the long-run backtest.

Is it free?▾

Yes. The projections, rankings and scorecard are free to read.