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Bullpen Edge

Daily MLB win probabilities and projected scores, graded in public.

About Bullpen Edge

BullpenEdge projects every game on the MLB slate. Each team's expected runs come from the opposing starting pitcher (weighted by how deep he is expected to go), the opposing bullpen and how rested it is, the batting lineup, defense, the ballpark, temperature and wind, and the home-plate umpire. Both run expectations feed a run distribution, which gives the win probability, the projected score and the chance of every run total. Unlike most pick sites, BullpenEdge grades its own projections in the open: every finished game is scored, and the season's hit rate and Brier score sit on the home page next to today's slate. In October the site adds the postseason bracket, series odds and World Series chances for every playoff team.

Features

✓Win probability, projected score and run environment for every MLB game on the daily slate
✓Model inputs include starting pitchers, bullpen workload and rest, lineups, defense, ballpark, weather and the home-plate umpire
✓Public track record: every projection graded after the game, with the season's hit rate and Brier score
✓Postseason schedule, playoff bracket, series odds and World Series chances
✓Game Analyzer, game previews, pitcher projections and team ratings
✓Live scoreboard, standings, injuries and a written methodology page

Who it's for

Baseball fans who want a numbers-first view of tonight's games, fantasy and analytics hobbyists, and anyone curious how a run-based projection model works. Projections are estimates for analysis and entertainment, not guarantees.

Frequently asked questions

What does BullpenEdge project?▾

Every MLB game on the day's slate: each team's win probability, the projected score and the run environment, updated as starters and lineups are confirmed.

Why does the bullpen matter so much?▾

Starters rarely finish games, so the relievers who pitch the last three or four innings, and how tired they are from recent days, move the expected runs. The model weights the starter by his expected innings and the bullpen for the rest.

How accurate are the projections?▾

Every graded game is published with the season's hit rate and Brier score (0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better), so you can check the record yourself rather than take our word for it.

Is BullpenEdge free?▾

Yes. The projections, previews and track record are free to read with no account.