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Bullpen Edge
Daily MLB win probabilities and projected scores, graded in public.
About HoopVantage
HoopVantage projects every NBA game from the players expected to play rather than from team averages: expected minutes multiplied by each player's impact, opponent-adjusted team efficiency, rest, travel and altitude. The result is a projected winner, margin and total for each game, plus power ratings and projected wins for all 30 teams. The model was checked with a four-season walk-forward backtest, and the site keeps a public track record of the current season so the numbers can be checked against what actually happened. Around the projections sit game previews, player projections, a matchup analyzer, standings, an injury report, recaps and plain-English explanations of the advanced stats behind the model.
Features
- ✓Win probability, projected margin and projected total for every NBA game
- ✓Projections built from expected minutes and player impact, adjusted for opponent, rest, travel and altitude
- ✓Power ratings with projected wins for all 30 teams
- ✓Player projections, a matchup analyzer and game previews
- ✓Methodology page, four-season walk-forward backtest and a public track record
- ✓Standings, injury report, scores, schedule and game recaps
Who it's for
NBA fans, fantasy players and stats-minded viewers who want a projection they can check. The numbers are statistical estimates for analysis and entertainment and guarantee nothing.
Frequently asked questions
How does HoopVantage project a game?▾
It starts from who is expected to play: projected minutes times each player's impact, then adjusts for opponent strength, rest days, travel and altitude to get a margin, a total and a win probability.
Has the model been tested?▾
Yes. It was run as a four-season walk-forward backtest, where each game is projected using only data available before it, and the current season's results are published on the track record page.
What stats are explained on the site?▾
Team efficiency, power ratings and player impact, along with the glossary and methodology pages that explain how each number is built.
Is HoopVantage free?▾
Yes. Daily projections, power ratings and previews are free to read.
